The Conservative MP Ashley Fox says the Office for Budget Responsibility estimates that the freezes to income tax and National Insurance thresholds will reduce employment by 215,000.
He made the claim in a Budget reaction published on 31 October and reported by Burnham-on-Sea.com. The 215,000 figure is his attribution to the OBR and has not been independently checked against the OBR's Economic and Fiscal Outlook.
Fox also says the Chancellor's headroom against the fiscal rules has shrunk from £24 billion to £15 billion. That holds up as a rounding. A House of Commons Library briefing published on 30 October quotes a response putting the headroom at £23.6 billion in March and £14.5 billion now.
His further claim that the OBR forecasts a record tax burden in 2027/28 is consistent with the OBR's forecast of 37.9% of GDP.
OBR figures already show that the threshold freeze, which ends in April 2031, raises £58bn by 2030-31.