Public sector borrowing in the year to September was £97.8bn, according to Office for National Statistics data published on 21 October and cited by Reuters Breakingviews.
That total is 4.3% less than in the same period last year. It is 6.5% more than the Office for Budget Responsibility expected in its March forecasts.
The figure of £24.5bn for September alone, given in two Budget previews, has still not been independently checked. The Breakingviews column does not confirm it.
Breakingviews puts the fiscal hole created by the Iran crisis at £10bn. This is a columnist's estimate, not an official figure.
The column says rising European oil and gas prices raise the risk that higher energy-related spending and weaker growth will cut the headroom against the borrowing rules. It argues that the Chancellor, John Healey, has talked markets into expecting little and may defer thorny spending decisions to 2027. Mr Healey delivers the Budget on Wednesday 28 October.