گذار از قدرت منطقه ای به جایگاه استراتژیک جهانی: تحلیل ساختاری توانمندی های دفاعی و ژئوپلیتیک جمهوری اسلامی ایران

This undated Persian article argues that Iran's asymmetric defence doctrine and its control of key chokepoints are turning it from a regional actor into a global or superpower-level actor. We checked 12 claims. Five of the background claims are accurate, partly with qualifications: Iran became a full SCO member on 4 July 2023 and a full BRICS member on 1 January 2024. About 20% of global petroleum liquids consumption passed through the Strait of Hormuz in 2024. Iran is a participant in the International North–South Transport Corridor (INSTC), though the Rasht–Astara railway, its 'missing link', is still not finished. Iranian Shahed drones have been used heavily by Russia in Ukraine. Three claims are disputed by dated, reputable sources. The first is that Iranian drones have challenged the air superiority of traditional powers. The second is that Iran's deterrence can make any military intervention intolerably costly: Israel gained air superiority over Tehran in June 2025, the US struck Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan on 21 June 2025, and the US–Israeli campaign that began on 28 February 2026 reportedly took control of airspace up to Tehran within 24 hours. Even so, Iran did impose very large costs. Its disruption of the Strait of Hormuz caused what the World Bank called the largest oil-market shock in history. The third disputed claim is that BRICS and SCO membership has institutionalised Iranian power: the SCO condemned the 2026 strikes, but the 2026 BRICS New Delhi Declaration named no party. The rest of the article is interpretation or prediction, such as 'regulator' status and becoming a superpower, which cannot be verified. The article cites no sources. It leaves out economic constraints, sanctions and the 2025/2026 military setbacks. It also mixes up theories by presenting Organski-style 'power transition' as if it were Waltzian structural realism. None of the claims is rated False.

What checked out (5)

• C1 – Iran is a full member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO). Verified: Iran became the ninth full member at the end of the 23rd SCO summit on 4 July 2023 (Anadolu Agency, 4 July 2023, https://www.aa.com.tr/en/asia-pacific/iran-becomes-full-member-of-shanghai-cooperation-organization/2936909; FDD, 6 July 2023, https://www.fdd.org/analysis/2023/07/06/iran-becomes-full-member-of-shanghai-cooperation-organization/). Note: one secondary source (Iran International, 2 January 2024) wrongly dates this to July 2022.
• C2 – Iran is a member of BRICS. Verified: Iran accepted the invitation on 24 August 2023 and became a full member on 1 January 2024 (Iran International, 2 January 2024, https://www.iranintl.com/en/202401020918; TASS, https://tass.com/world/2130457). Small framing issue: the article calls BRICS a 'pact' (پیمان), but it is not a treaty alliance.
• C3 – Because of its position on the Strait of Hormuz, Iran has long been a key factor in global energy security. Verified: in 2024 about 20 million barrels per day passed through the strait, roughly 20% of global petroleum liquids consumption (EIA data as reported by SAFETY4SEA, 17 June 2025, https://safety4sea.com/eia-strait-of-hormuz-remains-critical-chokepoint-amidst-tensions/; IEA Strait of Hormuz factsheet, February 2026, https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/c8248eba-8689-46d9-ae4b-b858b59c0f1c/StraitofHormuz2026-Factsheet.pdf). The 2026 disruption caused what the World Bank called the largest oil-market shock in history (World Bank blog, 7 May 2026, https://blogs.worldbank.org/en/opendata/strait-of-hormuz-disruption-sends-oil-prices-surging).
• C5a – Iranian-made drones have been used in recent conflicts and are cheap compared with the defences used against them. Verified: Russia has used Shahed-136/131 drones (rebranded Geran-2) against Ukraine since August 2022 (Euronews, 22 April 2024, https://www.euronews.com/next/2024/04/22/how-irans-kamikaze-shahed-drones-are-being-used-in-ukraine). Ukraine reported more than 8,000 used, and shooting them down with expensive missiles is costly (Iran International, September 2024, https://www.iranintl.com/en/202409146831). Caveat: this is mostly use by Russia, not by Iran itself.
• C10 – Waltz's structural realism describes states in an anarchic system relying on self-help to survive. Mostly verified (Britannica, https://www.britannica.com/biography/Kenneth-N-Waltz). Nuance: Waltz's theory is usually read as 'defensive' realism, where states seek security, not ever-greater power. Also, 'Power Transition' theory comes from Organski, not Waltz. The article runs these frameworks together.

• C4 – Iran plays an established role in Asia–Europe transport corridors that is helping build an economic power bloc. Partly supported but unverified as stated: Iran is a core INSTC participant (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_North%E2%80%93South_Transport_Corridor). However, Iran's own roads minister has described the Rasht–Astara railway as the corridor's 'missing link', with major physical progress expected only over the next three years (Tehran Times, https://www.tehrantimes.com/news/522135/Iran-Azerbaijan-agree-to-boost-truck-traffic-at-Astara-border; RailFreight, 27 January 2025, https://www.railfreight.com/beltandroad/2025/01/27/rasht-astara-construction-to-start-after-march-2025/). The corridor is largely still an aspiration, and the 2026 war and US blockade would have disrupted Iranian trade routes even more. The 'power bloc' description is interpretation.
• C7 – Iran's role has shifted from deterrent to 'regulator' (تنظیم‌گر) of the global political economy. Unverified and interpretive. Since February 2026 Iran has tried to assert control over Hormuz traffic by routing ships through its own waters and attacking vessels that do not comply (CRS R45281, https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/R45281). That is coercive disruption in wartime, not an accepted regulatory role. The article does not mention these events.
• C9 – Iran has overcome its dependence on foreign technology and reached strategic independence. Unverified: too broad, and no source is given. We did not research the supply chain for components, so we neither confirm nor reject this.
• C11 – The international system is moving from unipolarity to multipolarity. Unverified: this is a contested academic view, not a checkable fact.
• C12 – Iran is on its way to becoming a global superpower and will become a strategic pillar of a 21st-century multipolar order. Unverified: this is a forecast and cannot be confirmed now. The material evidence points the other way: IMF figures, via the aggregator Worldometer, put Iran's nominal GDP at about US$371 billion in 2025 and about US$300 billion in 2026 (https://www.worldometers.info/gdp/iran-gdp/). Iran International (14 May 2025) reported a grim IMF outlook of high inflation and near-zero growth (https://www.iranintl.com/en/202505141830). The article itself switches between 'determining power at the global level' (abstract), 'superpower' (conclusion) and 'strategic pillar' (conclusion).

Confidence

Medium-High — Confidence is high for the background facts (SCO, BRICS, Hormuz volumes, Shahed use, the 2025 strikes), which are confirmed by several dated, reputable sources including CRS, the House of Commons Library, the IEA, the World Bank and ACLED. Confidence is medium for the disputed claims. Evidence there is mixed: Iran's deterrence did not prevent attacks but did impose large economic costs, so we rated those claims Disputed rather than False. Several 2026 details rely on specialist or encyclopaedic secondary sources. The article is undated, the 2026 situation is still unfolding, and the forecast and interpretive claims cannot be verified by nature. The trust score of 41 reflects accurate background facts combined with an unsupported central thesis, partly contradicted claims, no sourcing and significant omissions.

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Iran joins BRICS January 2024 full member

• https://www.iranintl.com/en/202401020918
• https://tass.com/world/2130457
• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Member_states_of_BRICS

Iran full member Shanghai Cooperation Organisation July 2023

• https://www.aa.com.tr/en/asia-pacific/iran-becomes-full-member-of-shanghai-cooperation-organization/2936909
• https://www.fdd.org/analysis/2023/07/06/iran-becomes-full-member-of-shanghai-cooperation-organization/

Strait of Hormuz share of global oil flows EIA

• https://safety4sea.com/eia-strait-of-hormuz-remains-critical-chokepoint-amidst-tensions/
• https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=7830
• https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/c8248eba-8689-46d9-ae4b-b858b59c0f1c/StraitofHormuz2026-Factsheet.pdf

Iran Shahed drones used by Russia in Ukraine

• https://www.euronews.com/next/2024/04/22/how-irans-kamikaze-shahed-drones-are-being-used-in-ukraine
• https://www.iranintl.com/en/202409146831

International North-South Transport Corridor Iran Russia India

• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_North%E2%80%93South_Transport_Corridor
• https://russiancouncil.ru/en/analytics-and-comments/analytics/what-north-south-international-transport-corr...

Kenneth Waltz structural realism self-help anarchy

• https://www.britannica.com/biography/Kenneth-N-Waltz
• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neorealism_(international_relations)

Israel Iran June 2025 war air superiority over Tehran air defences

• https://theconversation.com/israels-air-strength-is-giving-it-a-free-hand-over-iran-259073
• https://time.com/7294919/israel-air-supremacy-tehran-iran/

US strikes Fordow Natanz June 2025

• https://www.asil.org/ILIB/us-bombs-three-iranian-nuclear-sites-fordow-natanz-and-isfahan
• https://thebulletin.org/2025/06/the-us-strike-on-irans-nuclear-sites-preliminary-thoughts-on-the-outcomes/

Iran news February 2026 Strait of Hormuz

• https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/R45281
• https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-10636/
• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Strait_of_Hormuz_crisis
• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Iran_war

Rasht-Astara railway INSTC missing link status 2025

• https://www.railfreight.com/beltandroad/2025/01/27/rasht-astara-construction-to-start-after-march-2025/
• https://www.tehrantimes.com/news/522135/Iran-Azerbaijan-agree-to-boost-truck-traffic-at-Astara-border

Iran drones intercepted Israel April 2024 attack 99 percent

• https://www.fdd.org/analysis/2024/04/14/iran-attacks-israel-with-drone-and-missile-barrage/
• https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-04-16/how-israel-air-defence-stopped-iran-drone-missile-attacks/103707770

SIPRI Iran military expenditure 2024

• https://www.sipri.org/publications/2025/sipri-fact-sheets/trends-world-military-expenditure-2024

BRICS statement US Israel strikes Iran 2026

• https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/9/13/brics-summit-2026-what-are-the-key-takeaways
• https://m.thewire.in/article/diplomacy/brics-finds-consensus-on-iran-war-leaves-us-israel-and-iran-unnamed
• https://www.timesofisrael.com/brics-forum-in-brazil-condemns-us-israeli-airstrikes-on-iran/

SCO reaction attacks on Iran 2026

• https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/9/1/sco-slams-attacks-sanctions-on-iran-key-takeaways-from-bishkek-summit

oil price surge Strait of Hormuz closure March 2026 global fuel crisis

• https://blogs.worldbank.org/en/opendata/strait-of-hormuz-disruption-sends-oil-prices-surging
• https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2026-iran-war-hormuz-closure-oil-shock/

Iran GDP share world economy IMF 2025

• https://www.worldometers.info/gdp/iran-gdp/
• https://www.iranintl.com/en/202505141830

Islamabad Memorandum Iran ceasefire 2026

• https://www.dohainstitute.org/en/PoliticalStudies/Pages/from-administrating-war-to-administrating-negotiati...
• https://arabcenterdc.org/resource/the-us-iran-interim-deal-a-fragile-ceasefire/

Iran air defences 2026 war US strikes damage missile launchers

• https://acleddata.com/update/middle-east-special-issue-march-2026
• https://quwa.org/iran/military-news-iran/us-iran-war-2026-operation-epic-fury-the-strait-of-hormuz-crisis-a...

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