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UK FACT CHECK POLITICS

UK FACT CHECK POLITICS

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Latest UK Opinion Polls - Westminster Voting Intention

pollcheck.co.uk 11 August 2026 at 22:54 View original article →

The original link is the material being checked. It may contain false or misleading claims — we link for transparency, not endorsement.

84/100
Verdict High Trust Largely Reliable — Methodologically Transparent Aggregator Page with Minor Unverifiable and Self-Referential Elements

The article is a UK polling-aggregation tracker page (PollCheck) combining a headline voting-intention figure, methodology notes and an FAQ block.

✓ 10 checks out ✕ 2 disputed ? 8 unverified
☰ Full analysis The complete summary ⌄

The article is a UK polling-aggregation tracker page (PollCheck) combining a headline voting-intention figure, methodology notes and an FAQ block. Its central factual claim — that as of 10 August 2026 a 7-poll moving average showed Labour on 25.7%, Reform UK on 23.4%, the Conservatives on 20.6%, the Greens on 12.0% and the Liberal Democrats on 9.7% — is corroborated in direction and magnitude by independent, dated evidence: a rival poll-of-polls compiled by Election Maps UK placed Labour on 25.6% and Reform on 24.3% (reported by HuffPost UK, https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/labour-stretches-lead-over-reform-uk-as-new-poll-confirms-surge-under-burnham_uk_6a784298e4b0a81f52fefff4), while YouGov's 9–10 August 2026 poll for The Times and Sky News showed Labour 24%, Reform UK 22%, Conservatives 21%, Greens 12%, Lib Dems 11% (https://yougov.com/en-gb/articles/55331-voting-intention-9-10-august-2026-lab-24-ref-22-con-21-grn-12-ld-11), and Ipsos fieldwork of 30 July–4 August 2026 gave Labour a three-point lead (https://www.ipsos.com/en-uk/labour-leads-reform-uk-three-points). Methodological disclosures are unusually candid — the page explicitly warns that age crosstabs are volatile sub-samples and should be read as indicative. Weaknesses are presentational and structural rather than deceptive: several in-text hyperlinks are empty or truncated, the page repeatedly promotes its own tools, one demographic assertion ('the Greens consistently leading among voters aged 18-24') is only partially supported and contradicted by at least one dated source, and the underlying 7-poll dataset, house-effect chart and crosstab weights cannot be independently reconstructed by a reader.

What checked out (10)
  • Labour leads the current UK Westminster polling average, ahead of Reform UK — corroborated by Election Maps UK's poll of polls (Labour 25.6%, Reform 24.3%) as reported by HuffPost UK, https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/labour-stretches-lead-over-reform-uk-as-new-poll-confirms-surge-under-burnham_uk_6a784298e4b0a81f52fefff4
  • The stated headline shares are consistent with individual current polls: YouGov (fieldwork 9–10 August 2026) recorded Labour 24%, Reform UK 22%, Conservatives 21%, Greens 12%, Liberal Democrats 11%, https://yougov.com/en-gb/articles/55331-voting-intention-9-10-august-2026-lab-24-ref-22-con-21-grn-12-ld-11
  • The narrow three-way race implied by the article is confirmed by Ipsos polling conducted 30 July–4 August 2026 showing Labour three points ahead of Reform UK, within the margin of error, https://www.ipsos.com/en-uk/labour-leads-reform-uk-three-points
  • The named pollsters (YouGov, Survation, Opinium, More in Common, JL Partners, Ipsos, Find Out Now, Focaldata, Deltapoll, BMG, Techne, Lord Ashcroft Polls, Freshwater Strategy, Verian) are genuine, currently active UK polling organisations; Lord Ashcroft Polls published a survey placing Reform UK on 18% in the days before a Clacton by-election, https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/reform-uk-slump-third-place-poll-blow-for-farage_uk_6a7ac36ee4b0ecad6d3c63fc
  • The claim that 326 seats are needed for a Commons majority is accurate: all UK general elections since boundary changes contest 650 seats with 326 needed for a majority, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_Kingdom_general_election
  • The stated margins of error are statistically sound: a sample of 1,000 yields approximately ±3.1 percentage points at the 95% confidence level, https://uspollingdata.com/explainers/polling-margin-of-error/
  • The claim that the SNP dominates Scottish polling is supported: Survation's final 2026 Holyrood poll put the SNP on 39% on the constituency vote, ahead of Labour on 19%, https://www.survation.com/final-survation-holyrood-poll-of-the-2026-elections/
  • The claim that Plaid Cymru polls strongly in Wales is supported: YouGov's Welsh Westminster voting intention placed Plaid on 29%, ahead of Reform UK on 25%, https://yougov.com/en-gb/articles/53876-plaid-open-14-point-lead-over-reform-uk-in-yougov-january-2026-senedd-voting-intention
  • The claim that Reform UK leads in most English regions outside London, where Labour is largest, is consistent with regional aggregation showing Reform ahead in eight English regions and Labour holding London, https://britpolls.co.uk/regions/
  • PollCheck self-describes as an independent, nonpartisan site that does not conduct its own polling and builds projections from published polls, https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/about
✕ Disputed claims 2 claims ⌄
  • DISPUTED (not adjudicated False): 'Pollster crosstabs show the Greens consistently leading among voters aged 18-24, with Labour in second.' Aggregated May–July 2026 crosstab data support a Green lead among 18-24s (Greens 28%, Labour 22%), https://britpolls.co.uk/polls/by-age/, but a dated May 2026 analysis of YouGov data reported Labour as the most popular party among 18-24s with the Greens second, https://www.swlondoner.co.uk/news/20052026-fading-loyalty-data-shows-political-realignment-among-young-voters. The word 'consistently' therefore overstates the stability of the finding. Insufficient primary evidence exists to mark the claim False under the stated guardrail.
  • DISPUTED (presentational, not factual): the FAQ states 'Reform UK polls competitively across all age groups', which sits uneasily with aggregated data showing Reform on only 8% among 18-24s, https://britpolls.co.uk/polls/by-age/. Treated as an imprecise characterisation rather than a false statement of fact.
? Unverified claims 8 claims ⌄
  • The exact decimal values of the 7-poll moving average (25.7 / 23.4 / 20.6 / 12.0 / 9.7) cannot be independently reproduced: the underlying seven-poll window, individual sub-sample weights and inclusion rules are not published in machine-readable form on the page, so only directional and approximate corroboration is possible.
  • The claim that the average is 'updated daily' and that the dataset 'draws from every major UK pollster' is an operational assertion about the publisher's own workflow that no external source verifies; the page was indexed as updated approximately one day before assessment, which is consistent but not confirmatory.
  • The house-effects chart (each pollster's deviation from an equally weighted all-pollster consensus over 12 months, minimum five polls) is not independently reproducible; no external audit of PollCheck house-effect estimates was located.
  • The gender-crosstab methodology (standardisation to Female/Male, sample-size-weighted 7-poll average drawn from seven named pollsters) is a self-described process with no external verification available.
  • The 2024 vote-transition (composition and retention) methodology, including the claim that it counts actual voters moving between parties rather than percentages and uses recall data from six named pollsters, is unverified externally.
  • The claim that Conservatives and Reform UK jointly lead among voters aged 65 and over is only partially corroborated: aggregated age data show Reform UK strongly ahead among over-65s (35%) and the Greens weakest (5%), but the Conservative position within that band was not independently confirmed at the stated date, https://britpolls.co.uk/polls/by-age/
  • The age-bin standardisation rule (mapping to five bins by maximum overlap, using midpoints for ambiguous ranges, down-weighting wide bands) is a proprietary methodological choice that cannot be validated without access to the raw crosstab inputs.
  • The existence and accuracy of the linked Seat Calculator, Pollster Check and Demographic Breakdown outputs could not be assessed because the in-text links are empty or truncated in the supplied text.
⌕ Sources & how we checked Search journal, source grades, confidence ⌄
Confidence

High (0.84) for the headline factual claims; Moderate (0.55) for demographic, regional and house-effect claims; Low (0.30) for exact reproducibility of the proprietary average. — Confidence in the central claim is high because it was corroborated by three independent, dated lines of evidence within 24–72 hours of the article's stated date: a first-party YouGov release with matching fieldwork dates, a first-party Ipsos release with fieldwork 30 July–4 August 2026, and a competing poll-of-polls from Election Maps UK differing by no more than one point on the two lead parties. Confidence is reduced to moderate for the demographic and regional assertions because corroboration relied on third-party aggregators rather than raw pollster crosstabs, because one 18-24 claim has dated counter-evidence, and because the supporting aggregations predate the article by several weeks in a demonstrably volatile period. Confidence is low on exact reproducibility because the constituent seven polls, their sub-sample weights and inclusion rules are not published, making the decimal figures unauditable by design; this is a transparency limitation rather than evidence of error. The overall trust score of 84 reflects a page whose verifiable claims held up well and whose methodological caveats are unusually candid, discounted for broken links, absent inline sourcing, self-promotional structure, one overstated demographic generalisation, and the absence of trend context that would prevent readers over-reading a narrow and recent lead. Per the stated guardrails, nothing was adjudicated False, and every claim that could not be confirmed with current sources was marked Unverified with its specific evidential limit recorded.

Search journal

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Emotion 5% · Reading grade 10.0 · 1259 words

≡ The article we checked Full text as retrieved ⌄
7-poll moving average. Change since the 2024 general election. Track the latest UK opinion polls and Westminster voting intention, updated daily. PollCheck's 7-poll moving average draws from every major UK pollster including YouGov, Survation, Opinium, More in Common and JL Partners. As of 10 August 2026, the PollCheck 7-poll moving average shows **Labour leading on 25.7%**, ahead of **Reform UK on 23.4%** and **Conservatives on 20.6%**. The **Greens** on 12.0% and **Liberal Democrats** on 9.7%. Demographic breakdown ## Vote share by group Sample-weighted 7-poll moving average from pollster crosstabs. Bar widths show each party's vote share within the group. Recent polls Methodology **Standardisation.** Pollsters use different age bands, which are mapped to five standard bins - 18-24, 25-34, 35-49, 50-64 and 65+ - by the standard bin each band overlaps most, using the midpoint for ambiguous ranges. Some precision is lost when a wide band (e.g. 18-34) is mapped to a narrower standard bin, so wider bands are down-weighted accordingly. **Aggregation.** Each point is a trailing 7-poll moving average: a weighted average of the seven most recent polls up to and including that point. Polls are weighted by sub-sample size, so larger sub-samples - which have lower margins of error - count for more. Each poll is treated separately regardless of date; two polls on the same day both enter the window. Age crosstabs come from sub-samples of larger polls rather than primary samples, so they are more volatile than headline voting intention - particularly for the youngest and oldest groups, where sub-samples are smallest. Read them as indicative trends rather than precise measurements. House effects ## Pollster house effects How far each pollster's average sits from the all-pollster consensus, by party, over the last 12 months. The consensus is the mean of each pollster's average, weighting every pollster equally. Positive means the pollster shows that party above the consensus. Pollsters with at least five polls in the window are included. -5-4-3-2-1 0+1+2+3+4+5 Find Out Now More in Common YouGov Opinium Freshwater Strategy JL Partners Survation BMG Research Lord Ashcroft Polls Ipsos Techne Focaldata Deltapoll Reform UK Labour Conservative Green FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS What are the latest UK polls? The latest UK polls are shown in the live voting intention table and chart at the top of this page, which update daily as new polls are published. PollCheck aggregates every GB Westminster poll into a 7-poll moving average drawn from YouGov, Opinium, Survation, More in Common, Find Out Now and other major UK pollsters, so the figures above always reflect the most recent polling. Who is leading in the UK polls? The current leader is shown at the top of the 7-poll moving average table and chart on this page, which update daily as new polls are released. Rather than relying on a single poll, PollCheck averages the seven most recent GB Westminster polls so the leader reflects the underlying trend rather than a single outlier. The standings above are sourced from YouGov, Opinium, Survation, and other major UK pollsters. Who would win if there was a general election tomorrow? If there was a general election tomorrow, the winner would be decided seat by seat under first-past-the-post, not by national vote share alone. PollCheck translates the current 7-poll average into a constituency-level seat projection, updated daily, showing which party would be largest and whether it would reach the 326 seats needed for a Commons majority. The live projection is on the [PollCheck homepage]( and [Seat Calculator]( What is a 7-poll moving average? A 7-poll moving average - sometimes called a poll of polls - smooths out short-term fluctuations in polling data by averaging the results of the seven most recent polls. This helps identify underlying trends and reduces the impact of outliers, providing a more stable view of voting intentions over time. How do UK polls translate into seats? UK polls show vote share but due to the first-past-the-post system, seats don't directly match vote percentages. PollCheck provides seat projections using constituency-level demographic modelling, applying poll changes to each constituency's 2024 General Election result. Try our [Seat Calculator]( for full constituency-level projections. How accurate are UK political polls? Poll accuracy varies depending on methodology, sample size, and timing. Most reputable UK pollsters have a margin of error of around 3-4 percentage points. Aggregate polling (like 7-poll averages) tends to be more accurate than individual polls. Historical accuracy can be viewed on our [Pollster Check page]( What is margin of error (MOE)? The margin of error tells you how much a poll result might differ from the true population value due to random sampling. For example, if a party polls at 30% with a MOE of plus or minus 3%, the true support likely falls between 27% and 33%. Larger samples produce smaller margins of error. A poll of 1,000 people has a MOE of about plus or minus 3.1%, while a poll of 2,000 has a MOE of about plus or minus 2.2%. How often are UK polls updated? Major UK pollsters release new polls several times per week. PollCheck updates its data daily when new polls are published. The 7-poll moving average is automatically recalculated as new polling data becomes available. Which party do young voters support in UK polls? Pollster crosstabs show the Greens consistently leading among voters aged 18-24, with Labour in second. Conservative support is lowest in this age band, while Reform UK polls competitively across all age groups. See the [Demographic Breakdown]( section above for the latest 7-poll moving average by age, drawn from sample-weighted crosstabs across major UK pollsters. Who do older voters support in UK polls? Pollster crosstabs consistently show the Conservatives and Reform UK leading among voters aged 65 and over, with Labour and the Greens polling weakest in this age band. The age-group breakdown is updated daily on the [Demographic Breakdown]( section above, drawn from the 7-poll moving average of pollster crosstabs. How does UK polling vary by region? PollCheck aggregates regional crosstabs from major pollsters into a sample-weighted 7-poll moving average across the 11 GB regions. Reform UK currently leads in most English regions outside London, where Labour remains the largest party. Scotland is dominated by the SNP and Plaid Cymru polls strongly in Wales. See the [Demographic Breakdown]( section above for current regional standings. How is regional polling calculated? Regional figures use each pollster's reported voting-intention breakdown across the 11 standard GB regions, aggregated into a 7-poll moving average weighted by regional sub-sample size, with no bin remapping. Regional sub-samples are smaller than the GB-wide samples behind the headline figures, so the estimates carry wider error bands. How is age demographic polling calculated? Age bins from different pollsters are standardised to five categories: 18-24, 25-34, 35-49, 50-64 and 65+, with each band mapped to the standard bin it overlaps most. Each data point uses a 7-poll moving average with sample-size weighting, drawn from YouGov, Survation, Find Out Now, More in Common, Opinium, Focaldata and Freshwater Strategy. How is gender demographic polling calculated? Gender crosstabs are standardised to Female and Male. Each data point uses a 7-poll moving average with sample-size weighting, drawn from YouGov, Survation, Find Out Now, More in Common, Opinium, Focaldata and Freshwater Strategy. How does the 2024 vote transition analysis work? The 2024-vote view shows where each party's current voters say they voted in 2024 (composition) and how many of each party's 2024 voters would still back it (retention). It uses a 7-poll moving average weighted by 2024 sub-sample size, counting actual voters moving between parties rather than just percentages, using recall data from YouGov, Find Out Now, Opinium, Freshwater Strategy, Survation and Verian.

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