The Conservatives have closed to within a point of Reform UK for second place in the UK Fact Check poll tracker, after three polls published this week put the party level with or ahead of its previous showing.
The tracker, an average of the latest 10 polls with fieldwork ending by 19 October, puts Labour on 27.6%, Reform UK on 22.5% and the Conservatives on 21.5%. A week ago, on polls with fieldwork ending by 12 October, the Conservatives stood at 20.3%, 2.6 points behind Reform UK. That gap has narrowed to 1.0.
The movement is in the contest for second place rather than at the top. Labour's lead over Reform UK is 5.1 points, against 4.9 a week ago, and the tracker's seat projection still has Labour as the largest party but short of a majority, on 181 seats to Reform UK's 148 and the Conservatives' 141.
The week-on-week changes are small. The Conservatives are up 1.2 points on a week ago, Reform UK down 0.4 and Labour down 0.2. Measured against the previous set of 10 polls in the average, the Conservative share is up 2.4 points, with Reform UK down 0.1 and Labour unchanged.
Three polls entered the tracker this week. Find Out Now, with fieldwork on 14 October and a sample of 2,482, has the Conservatives on 22%, up two on its poll ending 7 October, level with Reform UK on 22%, down one, and behind Labour on 25%, unchanged. It is the Conservatives' highest share in Find Out Now polling on the tracker.
Trajectory Partnership, with fieldwork from 5 to 14 October and a sample of 1,473, has Labour on 30%, Reform UK on 22% and the Conservatives on 21%, all unchanged on its poll ending 16 September. Restore Britain is up three to 6% in the same poll.
YouGov for The Times and Sky News, with fieldwork on 18 and 19 October, has Labour on 27%, up three on its 11 to 12 October poll, the Conservatives on 23%, unchanged, and Reform UK on 22%, up one. It is the second successive YouGov poll to put the Conservatives ahead of Reform UK, after the party rose from 20% in YouGov's 4 to 5 October poll to 23% the following week.
YouGov said Labour's 27% matched its 4 to 5 October figure, which it had described at the time as the party's highest since January 2025, so the latest reading is a return to that level rather than a new high. It said Reform UK's 22% was within the margin of error of the previous week's 21%, and that Labour and the Conservatives together stood at 50% for the first time since its tracker restarted in January 2025, having fallen to 32% in March. YouGov described that as a small recovery for both parties.
Further down the average, the Liberal Democrats have moved ahead of the Greens for fourth place. The Lib Dems are on 10.1%, up 1.3 points on the previous 10 polls, and the Greens on 9.1%, down 1.4. A week ago the Lib Dems were on 9.9% and the Greens on 9.6%. The seat projection gives the Lib Dems 66 seats and the Greens 60.
YouGov's latest poll has the Greens on 10%, which it said was their lowest since September 2025, and the Lib Dems on 11%, which it said was their joint-lowest this parliament. Find Out Now has the Greens on 11% and the Lib Dems on 10%, while Trajectory Partnership has the Lib Dems on 10% and the Greens on 8%.
The tracker also records Restore Britain on 2.2%, down 0.7 on the previous 10 polls, and the SNP on 2.1%, down 0.2.
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