Nigel Farage has been overtaken by Kemi Badenoch on whether the public sees him as a prime minister in waiting for the first time, according to polling published by YouGov on Tuesday as Reform UK prepares to open the party conference season.
Just 19% of Britons now say the Reform UK leader looks like a prime minister in waiting, down seven points since June, while 66% say he does not have the top job in him — a view shared by 27% of Reform voters. Badenoch, the Conservative leader, is on 26%, including 33% of Reform voters, with 50% saying they do not see her as prime ministerial.
YouGov's recent Big Voter Study concluded that Reform's status as the largest party on the right was far from solid. On the pollster's reading, the balance tipping towards the Tories on the question of prime ministerial credibility is a further warning light for the party's momentum.
Support for Reform has slipped over the past 12 months. The proportion of Britons willing to consider voting for the party has fallen six points to 24%, and the share naming it as their main voting intention is down five points to 16%. On both measures, YouGov said support has returned to roughly where it stood before the 2025 council elections, making last September the peak of the Reform surge.
Opinion of Farage himself has fallen further. His net favourability rating stands at -44, markedly down from a peak of -27 last summer, while the net balance of Britons who think he is doing well as Reform leader has dropped 51 points, from +18 this time last year to -33 today.
Asked to describe Farage in three words, 71% of Britons used at least one negative term. The most frequent were "racist", given by 15%, and "liar", given by 12%. Perceived dishonesty dominated the responses, with 8% describing him as dishonest, 8% as corrupt or crooked, 7% as untrustworthy or unreliable, 6% as self-serving and 5% as sleazy or dodgy.
One in ten Britons included at least one swearword or insult in their description. Seven per cent described him as evil or cruel, 6% each as arrogant or dangerous, and 5% called him an idiot or a clown.
Just over a quarter of the public, 27%, used at least one positive term, with patriotism cited by 5% and honesty by 4%. A neutral or ambiguous term was used by 17%, most commonly a reference to him being outspoken or opinionated, given by 3%.
Among those who backed Reform in 2024, 75% used at least one positive term, most often "patriotic" (16%), "honest" (13%) and "intelligent" (10%). Eight per cent referred to his determination, and 7% to his being the best option available, his ability to get things done or his bravery. His "man of the people" image and his likeable personality each featured in descriptions from 6%.
Even so, 22% of Reform voters used at least one critical term about their leader, with references to untrustworthiness or dodginess making up most of that negativity, though no single critical adjective was used by more than 3%. Conservative voters were the most divided, with 63% using at least one negative term and 44% at least one positive one. Labour, Liberal Democrat and Green voters were almost entirely negative, at between 89% and 92%.
Views of the party track those of its leader. Between 59% and 62% of Britons describe Reform as untrustworthy, serving their own interests, prejudiced and extreme, against 15% to 16% who call the party tolerant or trustworthy. Majorities of 56% see it as incompetent and as caring only about a select few rather than about ordinary people, and the public tends to see the party as out of touch by 46% to 28%.
Reform fares better on one measure: 44% think the party has a clear sense of purpose, against 37% who are unclear what it stands for. Britons are slightly more likely to call the party weak, on 35%, than strong, on 29%.
Conservative voters again split both ways, tending to see Reform as having a clear purpose by 55% to 30%, as in touch by 44% to 27% and as strong by 38% to 22%, while also viewing the party as prejudiced by 48% to 22%, extreme by 49% to 27%, untrustworthy by 46% to 24% and incompetent by 39% to 28%.
The party gathers this month after making further gains in May's devolved and local elections, but has since been drawn into controversies over donations to Farage, faced competition on its right from Rupert Lowe's Restore Britain and lost its lead in voting intention polls since Andy Burnham took office.
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