UK unemployment rises to 5.2% as payrolls fall and wage growth eases, ONS says – Fact Check

Trust Score

Mostly Accurate

Confidence: Medium

Standard

Emotional Tone Low

How emotionally charged the language is (low is neutral)

Reading Level Advanced

Suitable for age 16+ readers (grade 11)

Article Length Very long

2,002 words

Caps & Emphasis Moderate

3.7% of words are capitalised (high can indicate sensationalism)

Executive Summary

The article’s core, high-priority numerical claims about the UK labour market (unemployment at 5.2% in Oct–Dec 2025; PAYE payrolled employees at 30.3m in Jan 2026, down 134,000 year-on-year; and Bank of England language that unemployment is expected to rise to ~5.3% by mid‑2026) are supported by up-to-date primary sources from the ONS and Bank of England published in February 2026. One specific vacancies figure in the article (~726,000 in Nov 2025–Jan 2026) could not be directly confirmed from an ONS bulletin located during this research window (available ONS vacancy bulletins nearby in time show different reference periods/levels), so it is marked Unverified rather than False. A House of Commons Library attribution is also Unverified because the exact advisory wording could not be located, although the Library does discuss volatility and provides context. Overall, the piece is largely consistent with official releases and includes appropriate caveats about LFS volatility, but contains a small number of statements that could not be pinned to primary documentation as written.

Factual Verification

Verified Claims

UK unemployment rate was 5.2% in the three months to October–December 2025.
Early estimates for January 2026 indicate the number of payrolled employees was 30.3 million, a fall of 0.4% from January 2025 (equivalent to 134,000 fewer employees).
The Bank of England February 2026 Monetary Policy Report states: “The unemployment rate is expected to rise further to 5.3% by mid-2026.”
The ONS time series shows the UK unemployment rate was 4.7% in 2016 Q4.
The ONS time series shows the UK unemployment rate was 3.7% in 2019 Q4.

Unverified Claims

Vacancies were estimated at around 726,000 in November 2025 to January 2026.
Regular pay growth (excluding bonuses) was 4.2% in October–December 2025 and total pay growth was also 4.2%.
Real pay growth was roughly 0.5% to 0.8% (depending on inflation measure) in October–December 2025.
The number of unemployed people was around 1.88 million in October–December 2025 and about 331,000 higher than a year earlier, with the unemployment rate up from 4.4% in the same period of 2024.
Economic inactivity rate (aged 16–64) was about 20.8% in October–December 2025.
Youth unemployment was “around 16.1%” (16–24) and “a level not seen for more than a decade.”
The Bank of England February 2026 forecasts projected unemployment at 5.2% in 2026 Q1, rising to 5.3% by 2027 Q1, easing to 5.1% in 2028 Q1 and 4.9% in 2029 Q1.
The House of Commons Library has advised that the headline unemployment rate should be considered alongside PAYE payroll data and workforce jobs statistics (as a specific piece of guidance attributable to the Library).
The statement that unemployment at 5.2% is “the highest in close to five years.”

Bias & Presentation

Detected Biases:

Data-led framing with interpretive market implications (e.g., linking labour market cooling to expectations of interest rate cuts), which can steer reader conclusions beyond the raw statistics.
Selection of historical comparators (pre‑pandemic lows) that emphasise deterioration, though not inherently misleading if accurately cited.

Language Patterns

Emotional manipulation: 0.12

Quality Assurance

Limitations: ['The article text included many ONS-referential claims but did not embed usable source URLs; verification therefore depended on locating the corresponding ONS/BoE pages via web search.', 'The exact ONS bulletin(s) for ‘Labour market overview, UK’ and ‘Average weekly earnings’ for the Feb 2026 labour market release were not opened in this session, limiting direct confirmation for several figures (unemployed persons, earnings, inactivity, and the vacancies value for the stated period).']

Confidence

Level: Medium

Confidence is medium because several high-impact headline claims are confirmed directly by primary sources (ONS PAYE RTI Feb 2026; ONS unemployment time series; BoE Feb 2026 MPR). However, multiple other specific numerical statements central to the article’s narrative (unemployed persons level and YoY change, earnings/real earnings, inactivity rate for the exact quarter, and the vacancies number for the stated period) were not directly verified from the exact corresponding ONS labour-market and earnings bulletins during this session; they remain Unverified rather than assumed correct.

Search Journal

Query: ONS Labour market overview UK 17 February 2026 unemployment rate 5.2% October to December 2025 1.883 million

Query: ONS payrolled employees 30.3 million January 2026 down 134,000 year on year 17 February 2026

https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/earningsandworkinghours/bulletins/earningsandemploymentfrompayasyouearnrealtimeinformationuk/february2026

Query: ONS vacancies 726,000 November 2025 to January 2026 labour market February 2026

https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/jobsandvacanciesintheuk/january2026

Query: Bank of England February 2026 Monetary Policy Report unemployment forecast 2026 Q1 5.2 2027 Q1 5.3 2028 Q1 5.1 2029 Q1 4.9

https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-report/2026/february-2026

Query: ONS unemployment rate 2019 Q4 3.7 series UK unemployment rate ONS

Query: ONS economic inactivity rate 20.8% October to December 2025

https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peoplenotinwork/economicinactivity

Article Content

UK unemployment rises to 5.2% as payrolls fall and wage growth eases, ONS says - UK Fact Check Politics ===============

[Fact Checker]( Us](

[Sign In]( Free](

[Fact Checker]( Us](

* [Politics]( * [NHS]( * [Elections]( * [Middle East]( * [Fact Checking News]( * [Editorial]( * [World](

[UK FACT CHECK POLITICS](

Saturday, February 21, 2026

[UK FACT CHECK POLITICS ======================](

Independent reporting, transparently verified by objective AI fact-checking

##### Menu

###### Categories

* [Politics]( * [NHS]( * [Elections]( * [Middle East]( * [Fact Checking News]( * [Editorial]( * [World](

###### Latest

* [Fact Checker]( * [Support Us](

[Support Us](

Search Articles

###### About

* [About / Masthead]( * [Complaints]( * [Terms & Conditions]( * [Privacy Policy]( * [Editorial Standards]( * [Our Fact-Checking]( * [Corrections & Updates]( * [Paid Partners]( * [Sitemap](

###### Get Involved

* [Write for Us]( * [Contact Us](

###### Account

* [Sign In]( * [Join Free](

###### Follow Us

[Follow UK Fact Check on Instagram]( UK Fact Check on Facebook](

View all results

###### Popular Categories

[Politics]( East]( Checking News](

1. [Home]( 2. [Politics]( 3. UK unemployment rises to 5.2% as payrolls fall and wage growth eases, ONS says

UK unemployment rises to 5.2% as payrolls fall and wage growth eases, ONS says ==============================================================================

13:33 on 17/02/26 | Updated: 13:58 on 17/02/26 |[Michael Patterson](

[]( "Share on Telegram")[]( "Share on Twitter/X")[]( "Share on Facebook")[]( "Share on LinkedIn")

Listen to Article

Your browser does not support the audio element.

UK unemployment is rising, with the jobless rate increasing to 5.2% in the three months to October to December 2025, the latest official figures show, as other indicators point to a labour market that is losing momentum.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) put the number of unemployed people at around 1.88 million (aged 16 and over, using the international ILO definition). That is about 331,000 higher than a year earlier, taking the unemployment rate up from 4.4% in the same period of 2024 — a rise of 0.8 percentage points over 12 months.

The ONS said unemployment was “up in the latest quarter and above estimates of a year ago”, in a release that also showed vacancies remaining subdued and pay growth continuing to ease, reinforcing a picture of weaker hiring demand.

Unemployment edged higher even compared with the previous rolling quarter, rising from 5.1% in September to November 2025 to 5.2% in October to December. While the increase is small, the level is the highest in close to five years and marks a clear shift from the low unemployment rates seen before the pandemic.

Compared with longer-term benchmarks, the rate is also above where it stood a decade ago. In 2016 Q4, unemployment was 4.7%, while in 2019 Q4 it fell to 3.7%, one of the lowest readings in modern records, before rising again through the pandemic period and the subsequent cost-of-living shock.

Separate, more up-to-date payroll data is also pointing down. An ONS early estimate based on Pay As You Earn (PAYE) Real Time Information suggests the number of payrolled employees was 30.3 million in January 2026, down by about 134,000 compared with a year earlier. Economists often watch the PAYE series closely because it can move faster than the main Labour Force Survey measures, which are collected through household interviews.

Vacancies, a key gauge of employer demand, were estimated at around 726,000 in November 2025 to January 2026. That figure has been broadly flat in recent months but remains well below the highs seen during the post-pandemic rebound and is described by analysts as consistent with a less “tight” labour market, particularly as the number of people looking for work increases.

Pay growth has also slowed. Average earnings growth excluding bonuses (regular pay) was 4.2% in October to December 2025, similar to the pace including bonuses (total pay). After inflation, real pay growth is modest, estimated at roughly 0.5% to 0.8% depending on the inflation measure used, offering households some relief compared with the period when prices rose faster than wages but also signalling that wage pressures in the economy are easing.

One of the most striking changes has been among younger workers. Several recent read-outs put unemployment for those aged 16 to 24 at around 16.1%, a level not seen for more than a decade. Policymakers and labour market specialists often treat youth unemployment as an early warning sign because entry-level hiring can weaken before redundancies rise more broadly.

The Bank of England has also highlighted the concentration of the rise in unemployment among younger age groups and has warned that persistent weakness at the start of working life can have long-lasting effects on pay and career prospects.

Despite the deterioration, policymakers and statisticians have urged caution in interpreting any single indicator in isolation. The ONS has repeatedly warned that Labour Force Survey estimates can be more volatile than usual, and the House of Commons Library has advised that the headline unemployment rate should be considered alongside other measures such as PAYE payroll data and workforce jobs statistics.

The rise in unemployment also sits alongside an elevated level of economic inactivity, which is a separate concept and can shape how tight the jobs market feels to employers. The ONS put the economic inactivity rate for those aged 16 to 64 at about 20.8% in October to December 2025, reflecting a sizeable group of people who are not in work and not actively seeking a job, including students, carers and people who are long-term sick.

The distinction matters because unemployment figures do not capture everyone who is out of work or receiving benefits. Under the ILO definition, a person is counted as unemployed only if they are without a job, have been actively looking for work and are available to start. Broader benefit statistics can include people who are not required to look for work, or who are working but on low incomes.

Looking ahead, the Bank of England’s latest projections suggest unemployment may be close to a local peak but is not expected to fall quickly. In its February 2026 forecasts, the Bank projected unemployment at 5.2% in 2026 Q1, rising to 5.3% by 2027 Q1, before gradually easing to 5.1% in 2028 Q1 and 4.9% in 2029 Q1. In its accompanying narrative, the Bank said it expected unemployment to rise further to around 5.3% by mid-2026.

For financial markets, the combination of higher unemployment, falling payroll counts and softer wage growth has strengthened the argument that inflation pressures are easing, increasing expectations that interest rate cuts could move closer if the disinflation trend continues. At the same time, the Bank has stressed that the outlook depends on how employers respond to weak growth and whether the cooling in demand turns into a sharper pullback in hiring.

Analysts said the next few data releases will be closely watched for signs of whether the rise in unemployment remains gradual or starts to accelerate. Measures of vacancies and payrolled employees are expected to be key, alongside redundancy signals and whether joblessness begins to spread beyond younger workers into older age groups and longer unemployment durations.

For now, the direction of travel is clear in the official headline: compared with a year ago, UK unemployment is growing, not shrinking, and the broader set of labour market indicators is increasingly consistent with a jobs market that is loosening rather than tightening.

Interested in civic action?[Take action (Advocacy)](

[ Politics ### Study suggests official figures capture as little as 6.5% of UK domestic abuse-linked suicides Feb 16, 2026]( Politics ### Ex-Reform MP Rupert Lowe launches Restore Britain national party, pledging “mass deportations” Feb 16, 2026]( Politics ### Jim Ratcliffe apologises for “colonised by immigrants” remark as ministers dispute his migration figures Feb 13, 2026]( Politics ### Home Office says removals hit decade high as Mahmood pledges tighter deportation laws Feb 05, 2026]( Politics ### Starmer agrees Intelligence and Security Committee will oversee redactions of Mandelson appointment files Feb 04, 2026]( Politics ### Starmer calls on Mandelson and Prince Andrew to cooperate with US after new Epstein emails released Feb 03, 2026](

Comments

No comments yet. Be the first to comment!

Share this article

[Telegram]( Link

##### Fact Check Results

92/100

Overall Trust Score

**Mostly Accurate**

###### Executive Summary

High‑priority numerical claims in the article (headline unemployment rate 5.2% in Oct–Dec 2025; unemployed 1.883m and +331k year‑on‑year; payrolled employees 30.3m in Jan 2026, −134k YoY; vacancies ~726k; regular and total pay growth 4.2% with real growth 0.5%–0.8%; inactivity 20.8%) all match today’s official ONS releases dated 17 February 2026. The Bank of England’s February 2026 Monetary Policy Report contains the quoted unemployment path (5.2% in 2026 Q1 → 5.3% in 2027 Q1 → 5.1% in 2028 Q1 → 4.9% in 2029 Q1) and states unemployment is expected to rise to around 5.3% by mid‑2026. Youth unemployment “around 16.1%” is supported by reputable secondary coverage and aligns with ONS datasets. One historical comparator (2019 Q4 stated as 3.7%) could not be confirmed at UK‑aggregate level from accessible series (Great Britain series shows 3.8%); therefore that single sub‑claim is marked Unverified rather than False. Overall, the piece fairly represents the latest official data, flags ONS caveats about LFS volatility, and contextualises the labour‑market loosening.

###### Factual Verification

**✓ Verified Claims**

* UK unemployment rate was 5.2% in the three months to October–December 2025 (up from 5.1% in September–November 2025). ([ons.gov.uk]( * Unemployed people numbered about 1.883 million in October–December 2025; this was around 331,000 higher than a year earlier, taking the rate up 0.8 percentage points from the same period of 2024 (4.4%). ([ons.gov.uk]( * Early PAYE RTI estimate indicates 30.3 million payrolled employees in January 2026, down by about 134,000 from January 2025 (−0.4%). ([ons.gov.uk]( * Estimated vacancies were about 726,000 in November 2025 to January 2026, broadly flat versus recent months. ([ons.gov.uk]( * Average earnings growth excluding bonuses (regular pay) was 4.2% in October–December 2025; total pay growth was also 4.2%. In real terms, growth was about 0.5% using CPIH and 0.8% using CPI. ([ons.gov.uk]( * Economic inactivity rate (16–64) was about 20.8% in October–December 2025. ([ons.gov.uk]( * ONS cautions that LFS estimates remain more volatile than usual and recommends viewing them alongside indicators such as PAYE RTI, Workforce Jobs and the Claimant Count. ([ons.gov.uk]( * Youth unemployment has recently been reported at around 16.1% (16–24), the highest in roughly a decade. ([peoplemanagement.co.uk]( * The Bank of England (February 2026 MPR) projected unemployment at 5.2% (2026 Q1), 5.3% (2027 Q1), 5.1% (2028 Q1), 4.9% (2029 Q1), and said it expects the rate to rise to around 5.3% by mid‑2026. ([bankofengland.co.uk]( * The article’s characterisation that the unemployment rate is at a near five‑year high is consistent with reputable coverage of today’s release. ([ft.com](

**? Unverified Claims**

* “In 2019 Q4 unemployment fell to 3.7%.” Note: readily accessible ONS Great Britain series shows 3.8% in 2019 Q4; a UK‑aggregate quarterly series at 3.7% for 2019 Q4 could not be confirmed from public web tables without downloading spreadsheets. Marked Unverified pending UK‑aggregate confirmation. ([cy.ons.gov.uk]( * Attribution that the House of Commons Library has specifically advised that the headline unemployment rate should be considered alongside PAYE payroll and workforce jobs statistics. While the Library notes recent volatility and provides indicator context, this exact advisory wording could not be located on the cited page; ONS itself provides that guidance. ([commonslibrary.parliament.uk](

###### Source Assessment

###### Writing Quality & Bias Analysis

**Detected Biases:**

* Data‑first framing with occasional evaluative wording (e.g., 'striking changes among younger workers') that could prime concern. * Selective historical benchmarks (2016 Q4, 2019 Q4) that emphasise deterioration, though broadly fair. * Forward‑looking interpretation linking labour data to rate‑cut expectations, consistent with market commentary.

**Emotional Manipulation:** 0.18

###### Evidence & Research

**ONS labour market overview UK February 2026 unemployment 5.2%**

**Employment in the UK February 2026 ONS Table 1 unemployment 1.883 million**

**PAYE RTI February 2026 ONS early estimate January 2026 30.3 million**

... and 7 more research queries

###### Content Integrity Verification

Content verified - no changes detected since fact-check

Original Content Hash: `4ce83ea4f2c0...`

Fact check performed on: 2026-02-17 13:56:46

### UK FACT CHECK POLITICS

Independent reporting, transparently verified by objective AI fact-checking

#### Categories

* [Politics]( * [NHS]( * [Elections]( * [Middle East]( * [Fact Checking News]( * [Editorial]( * [World]( * [Gaza Crisis Data](

#### About

* [About / Masthead]( * [Complaints]( * [Terms & Conditions]( * [Privacy Policy]( * [Editorial Standards]( * [Our Fact-Checking]( * [Corrections & Updates]( * [Paid Partners](

#### Resources

* [Advocacy]( * [Search]( * [Sitemap](

#### Follow Us

[Follow UK Fact Check on Instagram]( UK Fact Check on Facebook](

#### Write for Us

* [Write for UK Fact Check]( * [Contact Us](

[]( regulated member

Menu

Categories

Latest

About

Get Involved

Account

Follow Us

Popular Categories