UK food prices could be 50% higher by November than they were at the start of the cost-of-living crisis in mid-2021, according to new analysis that warns lower-income households will bear the heaviest burden if inflation in groceries continues to climb.

The projection, published by the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit, is not an official inflation release. But it comes as recent data already show food inflation picking up again and as the Bank of England, industry groups and supermarket researchers all point to further pressure on household bills later this year.

The Office for National Statistics said prices for food and non-alcoholic beverages rose 3.7% in the year to March 2026, up from 3.3% in February. The next official consumer price inflation figures, covering April, are due on 20 May.

The ECIU said that if its forecast is borne out, the increase in food prices over roughly five years would match the rise seen over the previous two decades. It described the projected threshold as a “grim milestone” and linked the renewed pressure to a combination of climate shocks affecting harvests, global supply disruption and fresh volatility in oil and gas markets.

Those pressures are already visible in a range of staple items. According to the analysis, prices since mid-2021 have risen by about 50% for pasta, 55% for frozen vegetables, 58% for chocolate, 59% for eggs and 64% for beef, while olive oil prices have more than doubled, rising 113%.

The think tank also said average household food bills rose by £605 across 2022 and 2023, with £244 of that increase linked to energy shocks. Even after adjusting for average wage growth, it said food prices were still 11% higher than at the start of the crisis, alongside increases in other essential household costs including energy, water and insurance.

The warning is likely to sharpen concern over the cost of living because food is both unavoidable and highly visible in weekly household spending. House of Commons Library research shows households spent an average 11% of total expenditure on food and non-alcoholic drink in 2023/24, while official data show food prices were already 38.6% higher in November 2025 than they had been in November 2020.

Food inflation has fallen back sharply from its peak of 19.1% in March 2023, the highest rate since 1977, but it has not reversed. The issue remains politically sensitive because prices are cumulative: even where the annual inflation rate has slowed, shoppers are still paying far more than they were a few years ago.

The ECIU said any renewed surge would hit the poorest households disproportionately because food makes up a larger share of their budgets. In separate analysis published in April, it estimated the inflation hit from higher food prices could be about 50% larger for the lowest-income fifth of households than for the highest-income fifth.

That warning is echoed by campaign groups tracking food hardship. The Food Foundation has said the most deprived fifth of the population would need to spend 45% of disposable income to afford the government’s recommended healthy diet, rising to 70% for households with children. Anna Taylor, the foundation’s executive director, said low-income families had “nowhere left to cut except the food on their plate”.

Consumer group Which? said on 30 April that around 3 million households had skipped meals in the previous month. Its research found 85% of adults were worried about food prices and 67% of households had made at least one change to shopping or eating habits to cut spending, most commonly by buying cheaper products, switching to more budget-range items or stocking up on promotions.

Bank of England regional agents have also reported that households remain highly price-conscious, with supermarkets saying spending is increasingly concentrated around promotions and paydays. Some business contacts told the Bank they were seeing rising demand for affordable credit and more arrears among customers.

Separate grocery data suggest the latest rise in official food inflation may not be the end of the story. Worldpanel by Numerator said supermarket grocery inflation was 3.8% in the four weeks to 19 April and warned that the effects of conflict in the Middle East had not yet fully filtered through to UK shelves.

The Bank of England said in its April Monetary Policy Report that consumer food price inflation is expected to rise to 4.6% by September as higher energy costs feed through. Its regional agents were more cautious, saying food inflation could continue to rise through the year and perhaps reach 6% to 7% later in 2026.

The Food and Drink Federation has issued a steeper forecast still, revising its expectation for food inflation from 3.2% to 9% to 10% by December 2026. It cited higher energy and transport costs, regulation and broader supply-chain pressures, arguing that the sector was again facing a combination of external shocks and domestic cost increases.

The different measures are not directly comparable. ONS inflation figures track official consumer prices, Worldpanel’s data are based on supermarket till purchases and the Bank and trade groups are offering forecasts rather than measured outturns. Together, however, they point in the same direction: food inflation is no longer easing cleanly and may rise again before the end of the year.

Retailers say they are trying to limit the impact on shoppers. The British Retail Consortium has said supermarkets are using discounting to keep prices down, but it has also warned that conflict overseas and rising domestic policy costs could still push prices higher. It said government had “levers it can pull” to reduce inflationary pressure.

Ministers have acknowledged the scale of the problem. In a Westminster Hall debate in January, food minister Dame Angela Eagle said there was “no single cause” of food inflation and described it as a live cost-of-living issue affecting millions of households.

The government’s response has combined regulatory review with targeted support. Measures already announced include a Food Inflation Gateway intended to identify and reduce unnecessary cost pressures, work towards an EU agri-food agreement to ease trade frictions, a 10% increase in Healthy Start payments from April and an expansion of free school meals to around half a million more pupils.

For ministers, the political challenge is that broader inflation is far below the peaks of 2022 and 2023, but households still feel squeezed every time they shop. The next test of whether food price pressures are intensifying will come with the ONS inflation release on 20 May, when official April figures are published.