Labour is facing the prospect of losing the Greater Manchester seat of Gorton and Denton after a new constituency poll put the Green Party in front for the first time in the campaign, in what would be a historic upset in territory Labour has held for more than half a century.

The Omnisis survey of 452 respondents, conducted ahead of polling day on Thursday 26 February, places the Greens on 20 per cent, Reform UK on 17 per cent and Labour on 15 per cent. A further 27 per cent of those asked said they were undecided, with 13 per cent saying they would not vote.

The figures, first reported by *The Independent*, are the first seat-specific polling in the contest to show the Greens leading, though the high proportion of undecided voters means the race remains volatile and could still break in multiple directions in the final days.

The by-election was triggered by the resignation of Andrew Gwynne, the long-serving Labour MP who represented the seat in its predecessor configuration from 2005. Boundary changes meant the constituency was first contested as Gorton and Denton at the 4 July 2024 general election, when Labour won with 18,555 votes, a 50.8 per cent share and a majority of 13,413, according to parliamentary results data.

Despite that sizeable majority, Labour’s vote share was down sharply compared with 2019, while both Reform and the Greens increased their shares, reflecting a broader fragmentation of the electorate. In 2024 Reform took 14.1 per cent and the Greens 13.2 per cent, with turnout at 47.8 per cent, a level that analysts say could fall further in a by-election and amplify the impact of highly motivated voters.

The latest constituency poll contrasts with several MRP-style modelled projections, which draw on national data to estimate seat-level outcomes. Some of those models have suggested Reform could be ahead in Gorton and Denton, while others indicate Labour could still narrowly hold. The split between the one local poll and the modelling has contributed to uncertainty over whether the contest is developing into a straight fight between Labour and Reform, a contest in which the Greens could play spoiler, or a three-way race where tactical voting could become decisive.

Betting markets have also shifted dramatically away from Labour. Odds compiled by Oddschecker earlier this month showed the Greens as favourites at 4/9, with Reform on 18/5 and Labour on 17/2, a striking reversal given Labour’s winning margin at the general election less than two years ago. Betting odds are not a prediction, but they can reflect momentum, activist activity and expectations among market participants.

Labour’s candidate is Angeliki Stogia, a Manchester city councillor. Her campaign has focused on community unity and on opposing Reform, with Labour figures presenting the by-election as a test of whether voters will reject what they describe as divisive politics. *The Independent* has reported that Stogia’s selection followed a process in which Labour’s national executive committee blocked Greater Manchester mayor Andy Burnham from standing, a decision said to have caused internal friction within the party.

The Greens are contesting the seat with Hannah Spencer, a Trafford councillor and plumber, who has argued that voters disillusioned with Labour should back the Greens as a clearer progressive alternative. Green representatives have sought to frame the campaign around cost of living pressures, public services and environmental policy, while also criticising Labour’s approach on issues including climate policy and reproductive rights, which have been raised by campaigners as points of tension on the party’s left flank.

Reform UK’s candidate is Matt Goodwin, an academic-turned-broadcaster, who has cast the contest as a referendum on Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour government. Reform’s campaign has focused on immigration, crime and opposition to what it calls “progressive” politics, but it has also faced scrutiny following reports, including by *The Guardian*, about racist or extremist content shared online by people connected to the campaign. Labour has called on Goodwin to disavow the material; Reform has been approached by several outlets for comment on the allegations.

With three parties clustered in the teens and 20s in the Omnisis poll, the role of tactical voting has become central. Labour sources have privately suggested that anti-Reform voters could coalesce behind the Greens if they are perceived to be best placed to win, while Labour argues it remains the only party with a realistic route to holding the seat. The Greens have publicly pushed a “stop Reform” message, although Full Fact has previously criticised a Green Party graphic used in campaigning as misleading in the way it presented the state of the race.

The political stakes extend beyond Greater Manchester. A Labour defeat in a seat held, in one form or another, since 1974 would be seized on by opponents as evidence that the party is vulnerable on both flanks: to Reform in some working-class areas and to the Greens among progressive voters. It would also land days before the formal ramp-up to the May 2026 local elections, in which Labour is defending large numbers of council seats across England.

Even if Labour holds on, a sharply reduced majority would be closely watched by MPs and party officials for signs of a deeper realignment. Some Labour figures have been reported as warning privately that a loss could intensify internal pressure on Starmer, though party discipline means few are speaking openly while the campaign is under way.

Campaigning is expected to intensify over the next four days as parties target undecided voters and attempt to define the contest as a two-way fight. Polling day is Thursday 26 February, with polls open from 7am to 10pm and the result expected overnight into Friday.