Voters in Clacton go to the polls on Thursday in a by-election that almost every major party has refused to contest, leaving the size of Nigel Farage's margin and the level of turnout as the only meaningful measures of a contest whose outcome is not seriously in doubt.
Polling stations in the Essex constituency open from 7am to 10pm on 13 August, according to Tendring District Council. Farage, the Reform UK leader, resigned the seat he won in 2024 — announcing his decision on 7 July, with the vacancy taking effect on 8 July and the Commons agreeing the writ on 9 July — while the Parliamentary Commissioner for Standards investigates his declaration of financial interests. He is standing again in the by-election he caused.
Labour, the Conservatives, the Liberal Democrats, the Greens and Rupert Lowe's Restore Britain are all boycotting the ballot, leaving the satirical candidate Count Binface as the de facto challenger in a field of 34 — believed by the returning officer to be the largest for any UK parliamentary election, beating the 26 who stood at Haltemprice and Howden in 2008.
That absence is why the numbers, rather than the winner, carry the political weight. Farage is defending a majority of nearly 8,500 and a 2024 vote share of 46.2 per cent, achieved on a turnout of 58.7 per cent among an electorate of 78,245. Any figure below those benchmarks will be read against them.
The only constituency poll, conducted by Survation for Mandate Research among 502 Clacton adults by telephone between 16 and 24 July, put Farage on 73 per cent, Count Binface on 20 per cent and Laurence Fox on 2 per cent, with Farage leading in every ward and among both men and women. Survation found 97 per cent of decided 2024 Reform voters staying with him.
The same research offers the sharpest test of what the contest is actually about. Asked unprompted what the by-election concerned, 45 per cent of respondents spoke about Farage personally — his motives, conduct or standing — rising to 54 per cent including procedural answers. Only 12 per cent raised anything specific to Clacton, and just 5 per cent gave local content as their main answer.
"I think it's about egos. I think it's a farce. It wasn't necessary. It's wasting public money," one female respondent aged over 55 told Survation's researchers.
The standards inquiry that prompted the resignation covers a £5m payment from the Thailand-based businessman Christopher Harborne, alleged gifts in kind from the financier George Cottrell, claimed lobbying of the Bank of England over cryptocurrency, and the declaration of several properties. Farage denies wrongdoing, saying he has "done nothing wrong" and has "not broken the law in any way at all", and arguing that parliamentary "standards are now being used as a political tool". His resignation paused the investigation, which is expected to resume if he returns to the Commons.
The boycott has been framed by his rivals as a refusal to legitimise the poll. Kemi Badenoch said the Conservatives "will not be standing a candidate in the fake by-election that Farage is causing to distract people", promising to contest any subsequent contest. Sir Ed Davey called it a "vanity project". Sir Keir Starmer, then prime minister, described it as "a desperate stunt". Lowe said Farage was "making a mockery of our entire democratic process".
The ballot paper runs to 90cm, the longest in UK history, costs four times more to print than usual and is longer than some counting tables. Tendring's chief executive, Ian Davidson, has estimated the cost at "around a quarter of a million, about £250,000", with other estimates exceeding £275,000. Reform's offer to pay was rejected as unlawful.
The backdrop has also shifted. Farage called the contest when Reform led national polling; Andy Burnham has since become prime minister, and Ipsos, Opinium and JL Partners now put Labour narrowly ahead.