Nigel Farage has moved to recast Reform UK’s economic pitch, playing down the party’s headline promise of £90bn in tax cuts and emphasising spending restraint. In a City of London speech on Monday 3 November he described the package as an “ambition” rather than a firm pledge, arguing that the public finances are too fragile for sweeping giveaways and that spending must be brought under control first. The pivot, trailed for weeks, was made explicit to business audiences and reinforced in broadcast interviews in which he said “substantial tax cuts” are not realistic now; an attempt to project fiscal toughness without dulling Reform’s insurgent edge.
Farage told journalists there is an argument that the minimum wage for younger workers is too high, given the lower threshold at which employers begin paying national insurance contributions. He repeated that last year’s manifesto tax promises were aspirations, not guarantees, and said any immediate steps would be modest—such as reversing recent inheritance tax changes on family farms and nudging thresholds upwards. He declined to say who would serve as chancellor if he entered No 10. Labour and the Conservatives seized on the shift as evidence of muddle over costs and priorities.
The retreat sits alongside a separate pitch to internationally mobile wealth. Over the summer Reform proposed a “Britannia card” offering a decade of protection from UK taxes on overseas wealth in exchange for a one-off £250,000 payment, with proceeds paid as a small annual dividend to low-paid workers. Independent experts, including tax lawyer Dan Neidle, warned the scheme could blow a multibillion-pound hole compared with current rules. Ministers who abolished the old non-dom regime earlier in the year called the plan a giveaway for rich newcomers. Farage argues the card would reverse an exodus of wealth after those reforms.
What has not changed is the scale of Reform’s 2024 promises, or the scrutiny they attract. The Institute for Fiscal Studies said the programme relied on implausible savings and that the sums did not add up by “tens of billions” a year. That judgment still hangs over the project even as Farage trims his ambitions and shifts to talk of efficiency and deregulation. He has also declined to guarantee the pensions triple lock, saying the state of the economy will dictate choices closer to the next election.
Politically, Farage insists Reform is not a one-man band and points to a larger frontbench, yet he has left key appointments open while leaning into a pro-business identity—castigating regulators and promising to peel back rules he says hold back investment. That message mirrors the thrust of financial-press coverage of his speech and underlines the party’s attempt to move from protest to programme.
The national pitch is colliding with the realities of local government. Since May, Reform has taken control of a string of councils and discovered how tight the arithmetic is. In Kent, a senior cabinet member said services were already down to the bare bones and signalled that the authority is likely to lift council tax by about 5% next year—the most possible without a referendum. An efficiency drive styled as a “Doge” unit has reportedly hit obstacles accessing sensitive data. Reform counters that it has cut debt and curbed new borrowing, but the budget gap remains. Similar pressures are being aired by Reform leaders in West Northamptonshire and Durham. The picture is not unique to Reform: almost nine in 10 top-tier councils in England raised council tax by the maximum this year as social care costs and statutory duties swallowed budgets.
The political risks are sharpest in Kent, the party’s shop window. In late October Reform suspended four county councillors after a leaked video captured bitter infighting over leadership and finances; a further suspension followed last week. The turbulence has handed opponents a simple line of attack about competence just as Reform argues it alone can repair public services without raising the tax burden.
Farage’s welfare rhetoric has also hardened. He and senior colleagues argue that tightening Personal Independence Payment rules for people with mild mental-health conditions would save up to £9bn. That figure is unproven and widely challenged by policy analysts. The broader context is that every major party is grappling with rising disability and sickness benefits, which have pushed welfare costs higher since the pandemic. Reform’s stance would amount to one of the most aggressive trims to the system advanced by any Westminster party this year.
The electoral backdrop explains the urgency. Reform has led or been competitive in several recent national polls, with YouGov and Ipsos surveys through the autumn putting the party in the mid-to-high 20s and sometimes higher. An analysis in the Times suggested that tactical voting by Labour and Liberal Democrat supporters could blunt Reform’s path to power in key seats. For now, the trendline flatters Farage—hence the attempt to shift from crowd-pleasing promises to a more grounded plan.
Whether the numbers match the narrative is less clear. Economists point out that savings from cutting what parties call “waste” rarely bridge the gap created by demographic pressures in adult and children’s social care, special educational needs transport and other demands on councils. Business groups are split on Labour’s Employment Rights Bill, but many of the reforms Farage opposes are popular with the public. And while his focus on attracting capital puts distance between Reform and the main parties on non-dom policy, independent costings imply the Britannia card could cost more than it brings in if take-up scales. The gap between intention and implementation is already visible in Kent and West Northamptonshire. It will define Reform’s national offer in the months ahead.